Predictive values of immune indicators on respiratory failure in the early phase of COVID-19 due to Delta and precedent variants

Background: Immune response indicators in the early phase of COVID-19, including interferon and neutralizing responses against SARS-CoV-2, which predict hypoxemia remains unclear. Methods: This prospective observational study recruited patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (before emergence of omicron variant). As the immune indicators, we assessed the serum levels of IFN-I/III, IL-6, CXCL10 and VEGF, using an ELISA at within 5 days after the onset of symptoms, and serum neutralizing responses using a pseudovirus assay. We also assessed SARS-CoV-2 viral load by qPCR using nasal-swab specimens and serum, to assess the association of indicators and viral distribution. Results: The study enrolled 117 patients with COVID-19, of which 28 patients developed hypoxemia. None received vaccine before admission. Serum IFN-I levels (IFN-α and IFN-β), IL-6, CXCL10, LDH and CRP were significantly higher in patients who developed hypoxemia. A significant association with nasopharyngeal viral load was observed only for IFN-I. The serum levels of IFN-α, IL-6, CXCL10 were significantly associated with the presence of RNAemia. Multivariable analysis showed higher odds ratio of IFN-α, with cut-off value of 107 pg/ml, in regard to hypoxemia (Odds ratio [OR]=17.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7-85; p<0.001), compared to those of IL-6, >17.9 pg/ml (OR=10.5; 95% CI, 2.9-46; p<0.001). Conclusions: This study demonstrated that serum IFN-α levels in the early phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection strongly predict hypoxemic respiratory failure in a manner different from that of the other indicators including IL-6 or humoral immune response, and instead sensitively reflect innate immune response against SARS-CoV-2 invasion.