Nodal infiltration in endometrial cancer: a prediction model using best subset regression

Objectives: To build preoperative prediction models with and without MRI for regional lymph node metastasis (r-LNM, pelvic and/or para-aortic LNM (PENM/PANM)) and for PANM in endometrial cancer using established risk factors. Methods: In this retrospective two-center study, 364 patients with endometrial cancer were included: 253 in the model development and 111 in the external validation. For r-LNM and PANM, respectively, best subset regression with ten-time fivefold cross validation was conducted using ten established risk factors (4 clinical and 6 imaging factors). Models with the top 10 percentile of area under the curve (AUC) and with the fewest variables in the model development were subjected to the external validation (11 and 4 candidates, respectively, for r-LNM and PANM). Then, the models with the highest AUC were selected as the final models. Models without MRI findings were developed similarly, assuming the cases where MRI was not available. Results: The final r-LNM model consisted of pelvic lymph node (PEN) ≥ 6 mm, deep myometrial invasion (DMI) on MRI, CA125, para-aortic lymph node (PAN) ≥ 6 mm, and biopsy; PANM model consisted of DMI, PAN, PEN, and CA125 (in order of correlation coefficient β values). The AUCs were 0.85 (95%CI: 0.77–0.92) and 0.86 (0.75–0.94) for the external validation, respectively. The model without MRI for r-LNM and PANM showed AUC of 0.79 (0.68–0.89) and 0.87 (0.76–0.96), respectively. Conclusions: The prediction models created by best subset regression with cross validation showed high diagnostic performance for predicting LNM in endometrial cancer, which may avoid unnecessary lymphadenectomies. Clinical relevance statement: The prediction risks of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and para-aortic LNM can be easily obtained for all patients with endometrial cancer by inputting the conventional clinical information into our models. They help in the decision-making for optimal lymphadenectomy and personalized treatment. Key Points: •Diagnostic performance of lymph node metastases (LNM) in endometrial cancer is low based on size criteria and can be improved by combining with other clinical information. •The optimized logistic regression model for regional LNM consists of lymph node ≥ 6 mm, deep myometrial invasion, cancer antigen-125, and biopsy, showing high diagnostic performance. •Our model predicts the preoperative risk of LNM, which may avoid unnecessary lymphadenectomies.