Validation of five prognostic models treated with axitinib beyond first-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab therapy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma: a Japanese multicenter retrospective study

Objective: To validate multiple prognostic models in metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients who received second-line axitinib following first-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab therapy. Methods: Five prognostic models (ACL, albumin, C-reactive protein, and lactate dehydrogenase; IMDC, International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium; MSKCC, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center; ATP, axitinib treatment prediction; JMRC, Japanese metastatic renal cancer) to predict overall survival (OS) were validated and compared using data from 86 metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients who received second-line axitinib therapy following first-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab therapy at 34 hospitals affiliated with the Japan Urologic Oncology Group. Results: The Karnofsky performance status, time from initial diagnosis to first-line therapy, and hemoglobin, platelet, albumin, and C-reactive protein levels correlated with OS in univariate Cox regression analyses. Among these factors, only albumin had a significant impact on OS in the multivariate analysis. The integrated area under the curve (AUC) of the ACL, IMDC, MSKCC, ATP, and JMRC models were 0.78, 0.76, 0.76, 0.69, and 0.70, respectively. The ACL model showed a higher value than the others in the time-dependent AUC. Conclusions: The accuracy of the five prognostic models (ACL, IMDC, MSKCC, ATP, and JMRC) created in the pre–immuno-oncology (IO) treatment cohort was maintained in the second-line axitinib group after nivolumab plus ipilimumab therapy. The ACL model demonstrated moderate accuracy in predicting OS with the fewest number of clinical variables.