Integrating X-MP radar data to estimate rainfall induced debris flow in the Merapi volcanic area

After the 2010 eruption, more than 50 volcanic debris flow (lahar) events occurred during the rainy season of 2010–2011 at Mount Merapi, Indonesia. The lahars occurred following rainfall of severe intensity in the upstream area, where remaining volcanic material was deposited. Estimation of rainfall-induced lahars at Mt. Merapi is difficult and uncertain because the upstream area is dangerous and inaccessible. On 17 February 2016, a lahar occurred in the upstream region of the Gendol River on the southeastern flank of Mt. Merapi after a maximum rainfall intensity of 69 mm/h was monitored on the peak of Mt. Merapi by X-band multi-parameter (X-MP) radar. In this study, rainfall intensity estimates from X-MP radar were applied to generate boundary discharge of a numerical model of debris flow at the catchment scale. The numerical simulation was able to estimate volcanic debris flow occurrence and magnitude. The reliability of radar-rainfall data and the effects of the sabo dam on reducing the impacts of lahar disaster were also examined. The numerical lahar simulation showed relevant results that were comparable to the real condition. The closed type sabo dam caused more than 50% lahar sediment decrement and a flow delay time of 40 min. However, the sediment accumulation has caused increasing flow velocity and higher erosion rate in the 2D area. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of remote monitoring of rainfall combined with numerical debris flow modeling for applied practical use in disaster management.